UK House Price Outlook for 2025 — The Purple Zebra Archive
October 3, 2026
Historical archive. This page brings together my Purple Zebra discussions of the housing-market outlook published around the end of 2024 and the start of 2025. It records the questions and forecasts I discussed then. It does not describe today’s market or claim that a forecast came true.
Could UK house prices crash in 2025?
My December 2024 articles considered several pressures together: mortgage costs, inflation, employment, government policy and the difference between local property markets. The question was whether those pressures could turn into a substantial fall in prices, rather than whether a single weak monthly figure proved a crash.
I discussed competing possibilities. Lower borrowing costs could support buyers, while weaker employment or confidence could work in the other direction. An investor also needed to distinguish national prices from the rent, finance and resale prospects of a particular property.
The original discussion is available in my December 2024 house-price risk video. My earlier 2025 crash discussion considered housing supply, interest rates, inflation and unexpected events. These are historical recordings.
My more positive forecast was conditional too
In a separate Purple Zebra article, “Real UK House Price Predictions 2025”, I set out a more positive possibility, including a personal outlook of roughly 5% growth. That was a forecast made before the year’s outcome was known. It should not be read as a measured result or as an assumption to put into a current investment calculation.
The article weighed possible support from borrowing costs and housing demand against risks from unemployment, inflation and wider events. You can watch the original forecast discussion. Keeping these different scenarios together makes the uncertainty clearer than retaining several disconnected headlines.
What the record-price discussion was asking
“UK Property Reaches Record Highs” considered how headline prices, supply and demand, inflation and mortgage costs might affect a long-term investor. The discussion belongs to the historical archive; it is not a current price update.
The underlying question was whether a record national figure made every purchase unattractive. My view was that the individual purchase price, rent, costs and time horizon still needed to be assessed. The original record-price video provides the historical context.
The forecast of Bank Rate falling to 2.75%
Another old article discussed a forecast attributed to Goldman Sachs that UK interest rates could fall to 2.75%. That number was a forecast reported in the old article. It is not today’s Bank Rate, a verified account of what subsequently happened, or a promise about a mortgage rate.
The useful investment question was how a change in borrowing costs could affect cash flow and affordability. Lower rates were one scenario; an investor still needed to allow for rates staying higher and for the difference between Bank Rate and an individual mortgage offer.
A small monthly fall was not proof of a crash
My January 2025 budget article responded to a reported 0.2% monthly house-price decline for December. Its argument was that one small movement did not establish a crash. It also discussed business confidence, employment, borrowing and regional differences.
The original budget and house-price discussion records that view at the time. It should not be treated as a current price update or evidence that one political event caused a particular market movement.
How I use these old discussions now
The practical lesson is to keep forecasts separate from decisions I can test. I need to know the complete purchase cost, the rent a property can support, the finance terms and the reserves available if the result disappoints. An attractive national forecast cannot make a weak individual deal work.
For related reading, see my January 2025 recession-risk discussion, interest-rate scenarios for property investors and guide to comparing buy-to-let deals. The mortgage stress calculator can help explore assumptions without treating any one outcome as certain.